In my previous life in sales, one of the unspoken rules was that if you want to get ahead, especially as a manager, you should take on a territory that has nose-dived in recent times. The idea (and often outcome) was that you’d work your magic, the patch would turn around, you’d claim god-like status, and then be promoted again. The opposite would often be true if you took on a territory that had recently delivered unusually high results.

I love the concept that things balance out in time. Whenever I go through a very challenging period, I like to remind myself that, like a pendulum, life will swing in the opposite direction and things are sure to get better. Not only that, but you’ll come away from the experience with added resilience and appreciation for life.

Understanding Regression to the Mean

I recently learned about the mathematical theory called “Regression to the Mean,” which describes how after statistical outliers, things often revert back to the average. In a recent episode of “More or Less,” Sir David Spiegelhalter OBE, a British statistician and Fellow of Churchill College, Cambridge, spoke about this concept in the context of football managers and speed cameras.

There’s a well-known phenomenon where, after football managers get sacked, the team's results often quickly improve. Similarly, when speed cameras are deployed, the number of accidents in that area often decreases. Both events tend to be triggered by negative outliers (a string of poor results leads to the manager getting sacked, and speed cameras are often deployed after an unusual number of accidents). Spiegelhalter argues that the statistics in both cases may have reverted back to the mean regardless, as the preceding results were outliers.

Applying Regression to the Mean in Life

Understanding this concept can help build mental resilience. The Stoics emphasize the importance of not getting caught up in over-celebrating the highs or falling into excessive despair during the lows. Kipling also touches on this idea in his poem “If”:

“If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same”

Both “triumph” and “disaster” can be traps if we buy into them too much and create an identity around them. As I tell my clients, we can’t always control what happens in life, but we can control how we think about what happens.

When we learn to appreciate that certain things in life are out of our control, and instead focus on what we can control in alignment with our authentic goals, we gain perspective and free up a ton of energy and headspace. Once you learn to do that, you will be exponentially more effective. Quoting Kipling again:

“Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it.”

Controlling the Controllable

Focusing on what can be controlled, rather than fixating on external events, empowers individuals. This mindset shift frees energy for productive actions aligned with personal goals and values.

Conclusion

Embracing the philosophy of focusing on controllable factors enhances resilience and effectiveness. By adopting this mindset, individuals can navigate life's uncertainties with clarity and purpose.

Key Takeaways

• Understanding "Regression to the Mean" can enhance mental resilience.

• Stoic philosophy advocates for balanced responses to life's challenges.

• Focusing on controllable factors empowers individuals to achieve personal and professional goals.

Take Control of Your Mindset

If you’re struggling to focus on what you can control and want to build mental resilience, let's have a conversation. Together, we can develop strategies to help you stay grounded and focused on your authentic goals.